Skip to main content

  501-223-0242   gerald@acadianwealthmanagement.com

  • Home
  • About 
    • Our Team
    • Our Philosophy
  • Our Services 
    • Overview
    • Financial Planning & Advisor Services
    • Portfolio Management Services
  • Resources
    • Affiliate Websites
    • Calculator Library
  • Finance Commentary 
    • Market Observation Notices
  • Contact

    You are here

  1. Home
  2. 05/18/2020 Our View of the Markets hasn't Changed Much

05/18/2020 Our View of the Markets hasn't Changed Much

  • Linkedin Share Button

Dear Participants!

 

Our view of the markets hasn’t changed much.  We were caught in a dilemma after the 2018 low was broken.  The next obvious level of support was the 2015/2016 lows which were quite a bit lower.  We were waiting to see come clear TRIN and other signals to establish a high level of confidence in a bottom.  When the extraordinary monetary and fiscal commitments were announced, we reached out for further opinions in regard to what effect it might have had.  You may recall that we stated the markets could rally at any time giving their deeply oversold conditions.  

 

Well, the answers are now in, the oversold markets rallied well above the 2015/2016 lows and have since traced out what appears to be a countertr end rally that appears to have now turned down.  First putting in a bearish head and shoulders pattern in some markets, like the Dow Industrials, over the last two days, stock markets generally have traced out what appears to be a first small impulse wave downs.  But for the policy response, we’d expect an historic waterfall decline of epoch proportions.  This could still happen.  We will see.  With unemployment sky-high, real estate markets appearing to have turned down in earnest, and a robust rally while the economy continues to struggle, we can’t recommend a market bullish or even a market neutral position at this point to say the least.

 

One of the Subadvisors we utilize from time to time, wrote to me the following:  “Yes. This is the second leg [down] I was talking about. Now we will hear the fear in Powell’s [the Fed Chairman’s] speeches and more layoffs and loan losses and higher unemployment which money can’t fix.” 

 

As we’ve said many times, don’t wholly abandon a long term view.  This is again, a good time to have some substantial cash and some inverse stock hedges. Remember our often repeated caveats regarding the same. 

 

We should have a small one day countertr end rally tomorrow, but after that, our view is that stocks will be headed lower. We will see. If the decline we anticipate comes, we expect it to take 3 to 6 weeks to play out. We’ll do our best to update you on a potential bottom should we be able to recognize it.

Book a Meeting

Tell a Friend

Additional info

  • Sitemap
  • Legal, privacy, copyright and trademark information

Contact info

  •   10201 West Markham Street, Suite 213, Little Rock, Arkansas 72205
  •   501-223-0242
  •   gerald@acadianwealthmanagement.com
Gerald is primarily responsible for all investment decisions made by the firm and to provide all financial advice provided by the firm.  No other person makes financial decisions in regard to assets managed by the firm and no other person provides financial advice on behalf of the firm.  That notwithstanding, pursuant to recommendations and advice provided by Mr. Crochet, the firm does, pursuant to allocation recommendations made by Mr. Crochet, outsource the management of some client assets to sub-advisors that implement certain investment strategies selected by Mr. Crochet.  Those sub-advisor managed strategies include: Tactical Long/Short Strategy, Core Strategy, Alternate Core Strategy, Tactical ETF Strategy, Equity Opportunity Strategy, and Alternate Sector Rotation Strategy.

© 2025 Acadian Wealth Management. All rights reserved.

Website Design For Financial Services Professionals